Cooper Kupp is trending toward returning on Thursday night when the Los Angeles Rams welcome the Minnesota Vikings, and the star receiver’s timing could not be better.
Based on trends studied by Inside Edge, the Rams possess the antidote for a Minnesota defense that failed to rattle Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions in a 31-29 loss on Sunday.
With one enormous “if” — the qualifier is pass protection.
Kupp hasn’t played since Week 1 at Detroit, but was a full participant in Monday’s practice.
Down Kupp and Puka Nacua (knee), quarterback Matthew Stafford is still slinging it.
Rams wide receivers average 182.5 receiving yards per game (second in the NFL in 2024), while the Vikings average 203.0 receiving yards per game allowed (31st in the NFL). Rams wideouts are No. 3 in the NFL with 92 receptions (15.3 per game), and the Vikings are last in the league, allowing 26.8 receptions per game. Minnesota is also No. 31 in wide receiver receptions per game (17).
What Goff handled and others have not for most of the 2024 season is Minnesota’s pressure package. He delivered in spades against defensive coordinator Brian Flores, much the same way he handled a similar approach from the Dallas Cowboys the week before.
Can Stafford follow Goff’s lead in this department? Not if the first third of the season tells the story.
Minnesota generates pressure on a league-leading 34.1 percent of pass plays in 2024. Stafford’s 30.7 passer rating when under pressure this season is fourth-worst among qualified quarterbacks in 2024. And he’s fifth-worst among qualified quarterbacks with turnovers on 7.4 percent of plays when pressured this season.
To be sure, the Rams are not writing home about their own pass defense. They are dead last in the NFL covering wide receivers, who are averaging 14.2 yards per reception in 2024.
Vikings wide receivers — 63 receptions for 1,015 yards — lead the NFL with an average of 16.1 yards per catch.
Big plays are driving the Minnesota passing game with Sam Darnold at the controls.
The Vikings lead the NFL with 22 completions of 20-plus yards on 165 attempts this season. The Rams allowed 20-plus yards on 10.5 percent of attempts this season (27th). Even with a merry-go round at quarterback, it’s no surprise All-Pro wide receiver Justin Jefferson boosts these big-play numbers. Jefferson gained 20-plus yards on one in every three (33.7 percent) of his receptions since the start of last season, good for second in the NFL during that timeframe.
Thursday night could also mark the return of Vikings tight end T.J. Hockenson, who hasn’t played since tearing his ACL in 2023.
The Rams wouldn’t mind if the Vikings give Hockenson one more week to recover. The Rams are No. 29 in the NFL defending tight ends, who have averaged 60.6 receiving yards per game against L.A. since the beginning of the 2023 season.
