The initial rankings for the highly anticipated, first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff confirmed what many believed even before the season began: The Southeastern Conference will be represented in the new-look tournament.
Indeed, Georgia, Texas, Tennessee, and Alabama combine to make up one-third of the field. But the first rankings also offered some surprises — not the least of which is that the committee might prefer another conference just a little bit more.
1. Going big on the Big Ten
Occupying the top two rankings and three of the top six, the Big Ten was rewarded handsomely by the committee. Undefeated Oregon, with wins over two of the 12 teams currently slated for playoff berths — Boise State and Ohio State — is an unsurprising No. 1.
Ohio State’s positioning at No. 2, however, speaks highly of the committee’s assessment of the Big Ten overall. The same goes for No. 6 Penn State, which, before losing to the Buckeyes at home last weekend looked dominant against a somewhat middling schedule.
Perhaps the most telling indicator of the committee’s faith in the Big Ten, however, is Indiana at No. 8. The Hoosiers have blown the doors off of all comers, but their best win might be over either 4-4 Maryland or 3-5 UCLA.
2. Big dismissal of the Big 12
Big 12 pace-setter BYU open the playoff rankings at No. 9, which is the committee’s least defensible decision.
A variety of one-loss teams are ranked higher than the 8-0 Cougars, including No. 6 Penn State and No. 5 Texas, neither of which has a win over an opponent ranked by the committee. Fellow undefeated Indiana is ranked one place ahead of BYU despite also having no Top 25 wins.
BYU, meanwhile, has two: a road victory over No. 13 SMU and a blowout of No. 19 Kansas State. With no other Big 12 team ranked higher than Iowa State at No. 17, and BYU closing out the season against unranked Utah, Kansas, Arizona State and Houston, the Cougars’ chances of climbing from an incomprehensibly low starting position look bleak.
3. Committee not sold on Army
The first name revealed on the Tuesday show was No. 25 Army, one of only five undefeated teams remaining. However, the Black Knights are second in line among teams jockeying for the all-important fifth conference champion position.
Boise State leads that race, which is no surprise. The Broncos gave No. 1-ranked Oregon all it could handle and routed No. 21 Washington State, another outsider looking to crash the party. (Without an FBS conference membership, Washington State can only make the field with an at-large bid.)
Army’s positioning behind Washington State, as well as three-loss Louisville and the fast-fading tandem of Clemson and Missouri is surprising. Army does, however, benefit from closing with more opportunities to bolster its resume than Boise State does. With matchups against Notre Dame, Navy and a potential American Athletic Conference championship game, Army has plenty of room to climb during the radical shifts expected in the next four weeks.
4. Shifts happen in CFP rankings
Each team appearing in the initial playoff rankings has varying paths to make the field based on remaining strength of schedule — or the likelihood for another loss. SEC counterparts Texas A&M, LSU and Ole Miss fall into the latter category, all sitting just beyond the top 12 but left with little margin for error.
As conference schedules intensify, some playoff hopefuls will have opportunities to climb. This being the first year of the 12-team model, there is no precedent to reference. But in the decade of the four-team playoff, the first ranking rarely projected the final field.
To wit, 2014 opened with Mississippi State, Florida State, Auburn, and Ole Miss; only Florida State made the field. In 2015, LSU and Ohio State fell out of the first rankings. Expect similar shake-ups in the coming months.
5. Despite slight, SMU has reason to feel good
Coming off a blowout win over previously undefeated Pitt, and boasting a road defeat of Louisville, SMU could have gone into Tuesday with reason to believe it would be tabbed for an at-large berth.
No dice. Instead, SMU is unlucky No. 13, the first team out of the field. The good news for the Mustangs is that they close with a manageable three-game stretch, hosting Boston College and Cal on either side of a visit to Virginia.
Get through that stretch unscathed, and the Mustangs are positioned to move onto the ACC championship game and a potential showdown with No. 4 Miami.
